Why are all these people running in the primaries?

Have you ever wondered why there are so many people on the debate stage in the Republican and Democratic presidential primary debates? Why so many of these figures who clearly have no chance to win still insist on conducting campaigns and fighting for votes in a very public process?

It's all about the kabuki dance.

A kabuki dance is an elaborate and bizarre Japanese dance with ornate costumes but it's a phrase used in political spheres to describe a grand performance which is exactly that, just a performance.

Many of these candidates know they have zero chance of actually winning the nomination or a general election, that's not their aim. They have other goals that range in scope. Let's examine a few, here are the figures who were on the stage at the last GOP debate:

Donald Trump: The emergent outsider

My suspicion is that Trump, ever out for attention and influence within the US, realized there was a demand gap within the Republican party for a nationalist candidate and has seized the opportunity to fill it and potentially win the presidency. I'm not sure if he initially started out with the intention to win or not but he's certainly in decent shape to do so now.

However, he's in serious trouble in regards to winning the nomination. You see, the Trump campaign is all about posturing himself as the strongest candidate and the guy who will get things done. His evidence for his own candidacy are the national polls, which show him with a large lead nationally. However, state polls in Iowa and New Hampshire show he's vulnerable.

What will happen to his persona and the perception of his campaign's momentum if he loses Iowa to Ted Cruz, which very well might happen? What if the hit causes him to lose New Hampshire as well? Will he still trend well nationally when the myth of Trump's invincibility is busted?

At that point it'll be interesting to see what his campaign looks like and how serious he is about winning or if he's out to make another point.

Ben Carson: The token candidate

Carson has never been a serious candidate but has simply fulfilled the role as the token black Republican who has a few key roles within the party:

-To say all of the things about race relations and the inner city that white Republicans want to say but are afraid to say lest they are branded as "privileged" or worse, "racists."

-To show black voters that there are black Americans who are Republicans in order to build some credibility within that normally very strongly Democratic demographic.

-To indicate that the Republican party is inclusive towards people who aren't WASPS.

For his own part Carson has gotten a lot out of this and will likely end up with a talk show on radio or TV, if not more book deals, and is now a public figure within the party and the conservative movement. As an evangelical popular within that large and important Republican demographic he also served another role which requires multiple actors, the vote-splitter.

You see, the party's establishment wants moderately conservative candidates who will be effective leaders of the party's national ticket, but moderate conservatives don't make up the majority of the party's base.

If the GOP has to stick a strongly conservative candidate at the top of their ticket they're concerned that this will hurt their more moderate candidates that are running for congress. They are absolutely terrified of what will happen to their current majority in congress if Trump or Cruz are at the top of their ticket.

Therefore to help the moderate conservatives win the nomination the establishment will encourage and support multiple ultra-conservative candidates to be a part of the field in order to split the vote. Why else do you think Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee keep running for president every four years?

They are encouraged and supported to do so by powerful figures within the party in order to split the evangelical vote.

John Kasich: Servant of the establishment 

I expected Kasich to be a guy the establishment would rally behind when they realized that the party wasn't going to go for Jeb Bush, but it seems he's had other aims. His attempts to take down Trump, his way-too-early surge attempt in New Hampshire (where moderate conservatives usually stake their claim as frontrunners), and the way he's approach the election suggest that he's here to split the vote to buy time for Rubio or Jeb and to be an attack dog.

When it becomes advantageous for him to leave the race in order to boost the real establishment candidate he'll do so. What does he stand to gain from this? If he could have stuck around and made some noise he could have been a Jeb back-up plan, but he's failed to do so.

Carly Fiorina: Angling for a cabinet seat

Carly talks good and Carly talks tough but her chances in a general election are horrendous. There was no way that Democrats were going to lose to a woman who was fired from Hewlett Packard after nearly overseeing the company's destruction, who mandated terminations within the company as part of fear-based motivational tactics and undoubtedly made a ton of enemies along the way, and who was given a golden parachute when she got her own pink slip.

No way Americans were going to vote for a woman in a time of growing income disparity and distrust between the elites and working class who fired tons of American workers and then received $40 million when it was her turn to get the boot.

On the brief occasion when she surged in the GOP primary polls she did next to nothing to capitalize on her gains and soon dropped back. So what's her goal? To establish herself as an effective communicator of conservative principles, a capable and confident figure within the party, and a strong candidate for a post such as Secretary of State.

Rand Paul: Giving voice to the Libertarian wing

Rand Paul isn't really trying to win at this point either and his father was never a serious candidate, instead their goal is to be a voice for the Libertarian wing of the party and try to push the conversation and actual nominee to compromise some with Libertarian values so the party doesn't veer towards advocating for big government in pursuit of conservative aims.

In the same way that Bernie Sanders is trying to build momentum for Democratic Socialism to have a seat at the table in American politics the Pauls are trying to get Libertarians a place in American politics as well.

Marco Rubio: Jeb back-up plan A and future of the party

The set-up of the nomination process is such that as long as the vote is fractured and not united behind any particular non-establishment candidate, the establishment candidate can rise to supremacy by winning Florida, California, and Ohio in their "winner takes all" votes.

This was supposed to be Jeb, but since he's now a laughing stock it'll probably be Marco Rubio instead. He's failed to totally build up momentum and consensus as THE choice for moderate conservatives for reasons that can only be speculated at. He's a great communicator and can appeal to different parts of the party as a respectable yet very conservative candidate who's rise took place as a part of the tea party.

Whether he gets it this time or not he's likely to be a big part of the GOP's future.

Chris Christie: Original establishment choice and now back-up plan B

Before his Governor's office was accused of shutting down a bridge in New Jersey to hurt a political rival, Christie was a front-runner to be the main moderate-conservative candidate. Then that happened and he tanked.

However, he's hung around and is now emerging as a plausible figure due to his background as a US Attorney in an election where being a law and order candidate might be the strongest possible position.

He's currently surging in New Hampshire and taking shots at Rubio, whom he needs to pass in order to become the back-up plan for replacing Jeb. He's got Karl Rove in his corner, who was George W. Bush's savvy advisor who's biggest fault was probably not doing more to help his guy defend himself while in office. I suspect Christie won't have a similar problem.

Ted Cruz: The strongly-conservative candidate

Cruz is exactly the type of candidate that the establishment of the party is typically working to keep from winning. He's a figure that could potentially unite the various factions of the party who outnumber the more moderate conservatives and get a more conservative candidate at the top of the ticket.

His problem is dealing with the fact that the nomination process works against him and trying to unite them over and against the other non-moderate candidates in the fold. Cruz is a legitimate candidate but the preponderance of different figures in the race muddy the waters for his effort.

Not only are there other candidates going after factions within the more right-wing parts of the party but people like Rubio and Christie are also biting into his share of conservatives.

What you can expect is for Christie, Jeb, and Rubio to all stay in the race through the early phases to ensure that neither Trump nor Cruz seize too big of a lead before the winner takes all states come up and a single establishment candidate tries to take over.

So that, in my estimation, is the actual picture of what's going on with this crowded GOP field. What'll be important to watch for is the following events:

1) Can Trump win in Iowa and New Hampshire?

If he's able to maintain his momentum and win several early states it could lead to a domino effect where he's too strongly positioned for the establishment to take down.

2) Who finishes highest in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina amongst the Jeb back-up plans?

Does Rubio maintain his lead as the presumptive beneficiary of Jeb's collapse or does Chris Christie take it from him?

3) How much of a lead can Cruz build if Trump falters?

Cruz needs either for Trump to maintain strength and keep things split for a while so that the establishment candidate doesn't dominate the winner takes all states or else to build enough of a lead himself that he can contend in those same races.

Should make for interesting theater.