Projecting the Iowa Caucus results

Tonight Iowa will caucus and all the polling, campaigning, and debating will finally yield concrete results. The different results that could come out could mean a lot of different things for the future of the race.

I'm going to give my expectations for the outcome and what they will mean, then I'll come back around and pivot if I'm off (which is not improbable). Let's use the comments section to discuss the results as they come in tonight.

The Democratic Primary

Bernie Sanders really needs to win these two early states, Iowa and New Hampshire, when only liberal white voters will be participating in the primary. We've discussed how he's doing poorly with the minority voters that make up much of the modern democratic base and who will dominate upcoming contests like South Carolina.

He has to win now and stay in the spotlight as a viable candidate so he can try to win some of those voters over or be in position to be the primary beneficiary if Hillary is indicted by the FBI for emailing classified info on a private server.

Hillary needs to win now to build the narrative that she's the inevitable, and only true option for the DNC. If she loses Iowa the sharks will begin to circle and some may seek to enter the race.

Projection: Sanders wins narrowly

I haven't been super glued in here but the fact that the email issue is again resurfacing as a major impediment to her combined with his popularity in the key demographics make me think this will at least be close. The real problem for her, and for another candidate we'll get to in a moment, is that she's not the favorite of the middle class and that's the demographic that tends to turn out people who will go and caucus for two hours on a monday night to get something done. If she wins tonight it'll be because she did alright with that group and because Bernie became another classic victim of low turnout from young voters.

The narrative coming out of Iowa

The narrative after a close contest here will be "Sanders isn't going anywhere," and "what happens when he wins New Hampshire?" and "Is Clinton really inevitable?" or "Does Clinton really a strong candidate?"

All of those questions will be valid, the Clinton campaign is not going strong right now. She's a very effective and qualified candidate to further advance the cause of the Democratic party once she's in office but she's a very ineffective candidate at exciting voters and building coalitions by force of her personality. She really needs Bill for that effort and the glimpses back at his ethical issues with a sharper, less forgiving modern perspective are blunting his ability to be effective there.

The Republican Primary

Both Donald Trump and Ted Cruz both really need to win this thing. If Trump loses it pops the "he's inevitable, he's surging, he's bringing new energy and voters to the process!" narrative and demonstrates that the polls projecting his victory based on massive turnout are all false. All of his polling strength becomes suspect and he starts to look like a paper tiger.

If Ted Cruz loses the question becomes, "if he can't win Iowa, which is normally dominated by evangelical turnout, how will he win anywhere else?" Both Cruz and Trump have enough money to stick around for a while but all that means is that they'll continue to split the vote each needs to win the nomination and they'll each grow weaker while the establishment winner becomes stronger.

Each need to start to fully form their winning coalition and that can't happen if they can't dispatch the other and take away a big chunk of their support.

The establishment-lane candidates Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, and Marco Rubio all need to show enough strength to demonstrate that they can have appeal to rural and evangelical voters. If one of them does this it'll be proof that they can lead a winning coalition in November that includes this essential part of the Republican base in addition to the independents and moderates that they also plan to bring into the fold.

Projection: Cruz wins narrowly over Trump, Rubio finishes a close third

Rubio is the guy to rally the moderates, less hardline conservatives, and bring in some evangelicals and find a primary coalition that can take down the anti-establishment guys Trump and Cruz. He's starting to find some momentum in Iowa, especially after a solid answer to a question from an atheist voter that went viral that emphasized the role of faith in his life and in traditional American values.

If he finishes strong it's a win for his camp and I think he will based on the support of people looking to elevate a candidate who A) isn't Trump and B) seems like a strong general election guy.

Trump's polling success is all based on turnout models that seem to me to be highly implausible. I'm expecting the turnout to fail to match those models and Cruz to win by virtue of his strength with the evangelical organizations on the ground that have tended to dominate this event.

Trump is hoping that he's getting new voters into the process and that lower class voters are going to become active participants in a caucus primary and that he's going to accomplish this without much organization.

If the middle class doesn't go to Cruz or they get beat out by new entrants into the process from the lower class ranks that will really signal a new day in American politics and bring some real weight to the notion that Trump is actually a legitimate force in real elections.

The narrative coming out of Iowa

If Cruz beats Trump then he'll become a pretty strong candidate heading into South Carolina and the upcoming "SEC primary" of southern states who could potentially siphon off a lot of Trump's supporters. He'll get a different kind of media coverage because he's been under siege by the party's establishment and Trump for the past week as they each have a vested interest in seeing him taken down.

If Trump wins he'll be very likely to win in New Hampshire and Cruz will slowly start to bleed out after losing the early election determined by evangelicals despite having the support of key figures in that demographic. Some in the media will began to talk about Trump as an inevitability while the establishment will turn sharply against him and began to initiate the process of taking him down while coalescing behind their alternative.

If Rubio can demonstrate that his recent "surge" is legitimate then he'll start to edge out Christie, Jeb, and Kasich and potentially make a really strong showing at New Hampshire by uniting a coalition from the rather large group of people who don't want Trump to win the nomination.

As a devout Catholic with a strong record on issues of social conservatism, Rubio has real potential to steal away evangelicals from Cruz. Indeed, if he finishes better than expected in Iowa it'll be because he won over a ton of evangelicals who seem him as a more viable alternative to Trump than Cruz.

If either Cruz or Trump get whipped here it's Rubio who is likely to benefit. He's survived a barrage from Jeb and will be in prime position to win major donors from other establishment candidates and voters from virtually anyone but Trump if they slide. He just needs to appear viable after tonight so he can begin what seems like an inevitable process that will result in him rising up and securing the nomination.

Leave your own comments and thoughts below and we'll update after the results come in tonight.