Heading into the Tuesday with primaries in Michigan, Hawaii, Idaho, and Mississippi the only way to understand where we're at in this race is to examine the three major revelations that have occurred in the last week.
Revelation 1: The party's plan to stop Trump
The first thing that was revealed was the GOP Establishment's strategy for stopping Trump.
First there was a series of attacks by Romney, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz on "Trump University" and his overall character. If you haven't read up on it, "Trump University" was a classic snake oil marketing scheme where customers were asked to give away their money in exchange for Trump's "business secrets" which proved to just be platitudes that you could find for yourself by Googling "business secrets."
First there was a series of attacks by Romney, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz on "Trump University" and his overall character. If you haven't read up on it, "Trump University" was a classic snake oil marketing scheme where customers were asked to give away their money in exchange for Trump's "business secrets" which proved to just be platitudes that you could find for yourself by Googling "business secrets."
Romney also hammered Trump over his past boasting of his extra-marital affairs, his exploitation of illegal immigrant labor, and his great willingness to hire immigrants over Americans to save himself money, which he claims to have no lack of.
Many of the attacks are landing well as Trump has a long history of putting his own interests over those of anyone else and has very little in his resume to suggest he has the kind of character and understanding of servant-leadership that you'd hope for from a man who is running to hold the most powerful office in the world.
As part of the #NeverTrump movement to keep Donald from securing the nomination, the preferred plan by the Establishment was to get to a brokered convention with no one securing the 1237 delegates needed to win. From there, they could try to rally delegates and the party around a consensus candidate like Marco Rubio, who's had the money and broad appeal to try and take on that mantle.
As part of the #NeverTrump movement to keep Donald from securing the nomination, the preferred plan by the Establishment was to get to a brokered convention with no one securing the 1237 delegates needed to win. From there, they could try to rally delegates and the party around a consensus candidate like Marco Rubio, who's had the money and broad appeal to try and take on that mantle.
Revelation 2: Trump's plan to win the election
The second revelation from the debate came mostly from Trump's answer about off the record comments he made to the New York Times where he suggested some of his bluster about what he'll do about illegal immigration is just talk and that he'll compromise as needed once he's the President.
Most Americans outside of his most hardcore, cult-like following probably found that to be a relief, personally I've always suspected as much. However, it's becoming clear that Trump is planning a pivot in the general election that reveals what he's really all about as a candidate.
Essentially, Donald Trump is an old school Democrat from back in the day when the party was primarily about working class interests rather than special pleading for minority groups, environmental concerns, and culturally Marxist social issues like LGBT rights. As the Democrat party has moved in that direction they've slowly left behind working class white Americans, who now often find themselves lumped in with upper class white Americans as part of the "oppressive patriarchy" that's working against the DNC's new constituents.
Trump will almost certainly prove to be socially moderate, if not liberal, and more of a classic "protectionist, Union-preferred, expand social services, and nationalist" type President. His pitch will be one that Democrats aren't allowed to make anymore, that "free trade and immigration are why we can't have nice things!" in explaining why the country can't afford or successfully pass European socialist-style policies.
You can imagine Ted Cruz's frustration after going to the senate and working hard to oppose Obama's agenda while calling out any fellow Republicans who didn't do the same so he could run on his "Trust Ted" slogan only to see many of the people he was counting on to help him win the nomination flock to a liberal like Donald Trump because he said Mexico was sending rapists into the country and that we should ban Muslims from crossing the borders.
Ultimately, I think Trump will prove to be what we might call a moderate or perhaps a liberal from another era and I highly doubt he pushes for socially conservative policies on abortion or religious liberty or appoints justices to the appellate courts or supreme court to protect conservative values from the attacks of the modern liberal movement.
Revelation 3: Cruz has an alternative plan for stopping Trump
The thinking after Super Tuesday was basically "Neither Kasich, Rubio, nor Cruz have much incentive to drop out at this stage so the best plan is just to deny Trump the 1237 delegates and go for a brokered convention."
Then Ted Cruz won 2/4 of Saturday's states, including Maine which was not expected to be a Cruz state, and nearly took Louisiana and Kentucky from Trump as well. Cruz is not a moderate by any stretch of the imagination, and up till now his plan to unite tea party conservatives, evangelicals, and working class "Reagan Democrats" has been thwarted because of a large field and Trump's dominance amongst "Reagan Democrats."
After South Carolina it appeared that Cruz was just cooked, but then he won his home state in Texas as well as in similarly conservative and oil-rich Texas, Oklahoma, and Alaska where working class Trump supporters didn't exist in great enough numbers to stop him. Meanwhile, Rubio failed to win Virginia or other states where the establishment was counting on rallying middle class voters to stop Trump.
Nevertheless, moving forward from that point it seemed Cruz had missed his window and the remaining states would be more friendly to Rubio. But here was the problem for the establishment, who would vastly prefer a Rubio candidacy to a Cruz one, they'd spent so long beating each other up that none of their candidates was able to win states and build up any kind of momentum as a strong not-Trump option.
Meanwhile Cruz had victories to point to in Iowa, the first state contested, and also a big victory in the massive state of Texas.
If you were a Republican voter in Kansas, Maine, Kentucky, or Louisiana on Saturday you were less likely to be drawn to Rubio's cash reserves and upcoming slate of demographically favorable states, especially when current polls have Marco losing his own state of Florida to Trump. Instead, people rallied behind Cruz and produced this result:
Cruz won 69 delegates
Trump won 53 delegates
Rubio won 18 delegates
Kasich won 10
This effect was particularly stark in Kentucky where the finishing numbers were:
Trump: 35.9%
Cruz: 31.6%
Rubio: 16.4%
Kasich: 14.4%
Cruz is clearly the guy at this point who's the rallying point for beating Trump. Rubio may have the broadest appeal of any of the GOP candidates, but he's currently not a preferred choice amongst many group within the party...except in Puerto Rico.
So now here's where we stand in terms of the nomination:
Ted Cruz has the luxury of not having to sell voters on a brokered convention in order to stop Trump, he's arguing that if the party will fully unite behind him that he can win the nomination outright.
Here's the kicker, on March 15th Florida and Ohio will hold "winner takes all" primaries which are designed to allow a frontrunner with momentum to start to pull away. Whoever wins Ohio gets 66 delegates and whoever wins Florida gets 99, no one else will get any delegates from those states.
Cruz is not in good shape to win either of these states, so his plan is as follows:
1) Allow Kasich to do his thing in Ohio (where he's an immensely popular governor) and deny Trump from winning those delegates.
2) Set up offices across Florida and push hard to do as well in that state as he can with the obvious outcome of allowing Trump to beat Rubio.
If Rubio can't win Florida he'll be so marginalized that even if he doesn't drop out he won't be likely to hold his voters from flocking to Cruz
3) Keep winning states.
The original Cruz plan to win with Reagan Democrats will have to be on hold until he's their only GOP option in a general election against Hillary since he can't seem to separate them from Trump. Instead, Cruz is now pivoting to unite the rest of the party behind him and be THE not-Trump option.
If you feel that voting for a particular candidate to try and help him win office is the highest value your ballot can have, then vote for that candidate. But if you believe that the highest value your ballot can have is in preventing a "Trump V Clinton" general election then here's what I think the best use of your ballot might be on Tuesday, March 8th if you're a Michigan voter.
There are three key factors to consider, the first is that if a single candidate wins 50% of the statewide vote they get all of the delegates. Priority one has to be ensuring that Trump doesn't get 50% of the statewide vote, this can be easily accomplished be all of us simply turning out and casting ballots in the GOP primary for not-Trump candidates.
Secondly, only candidates who finish at 15% or higher in the statewide vote are eligible to receive delegates and they are doled out on a proportional basis from a total of 56.
Finally the state's winner gets three extra delegates, regardless of their percentage of the vote, who are bound to them at the convention. That last point is key because if we get to Cleveland and no one has 1237 delegates than most delegates will be allowed to switch their vote to another candidate.
Also worth noting, Michigan has an open primary. If you are a Democrat who believes (rightly) that Hillary Clinton has got the Democratic primary wrapped up and is appalled by the thought of Trump competing in a general election, you can choose to vote in the Republican primary rather than the Democratic primary.
One play would be to see who's battling to reach 15% and roll with that guy so that Trump gets a smaller share of the delegates. This was my plan until Saturday night. But given where momentum is right now, I doubt Rubio holds at 15% and makes that play worthwhile and instead I expect some of those voters to go with Ted instead.
Cruz is now positioning himself to be the only not-Trump option. Even if you don't like the Texan senator it's worth noting that the best chance of getting a brokered convention is for Trump to fail to win Ohio and Florida on the 15th and then for someone like Cruz to battle him all the way to the end so that he can't secure 1237 delegates.
The establishment's plan to unite behind Rubio is failing, it's just not going to happen. I think the following two options are your best options if you want to see Trump defeated:
Option 1: Vote Kasich
Either he gets some delegates and momentum heading into Ohio, which we desperately need him to win for any not-Trump plan to work, or perhaps he even pulls a shocker and wins. Well, he probably won't win, but he's still worth investing in at this point and will probably do decently well.
Option 2: Vote Cruz
I don't think it's possible to beat Trump in Michigan at this point, but continuing the theme of consolidating votes behind Cruz would give him greater momentum and validity as the not-Trump option. There's also a tiny chance he wins the state since you have to figure his excellent campaign is ready to turn out thousands of evangelicals across Western Michigan.
Personally I've always preferred Cruz to the other candidates and don't mind uniting behind him. I would recommend that everyone ultimately vote their conscience, but if you want to be strategic and try to avoid facing this in the November general election:
I think voting Cruz is the best option, followed by voting Kasich.
Then Ted Cruz won 2/4 of Saturday's states, including Maine which was not expected to be a Cruz state, and nearly took Louisiana and Kentucky from Trump as well. Cruz is not a moderate by any stretch of the imagination, and up till now his plan to unite tea party conservatives, evangelicals, and working class "Reagan Democrats" has been thwarted because of a large field and Trump's dominance amongst "Reagan Democrats."
After South Carolina it appeared that Cruz was just cooked, but then he won his home state in Texas as well as in similarly conservative and oil-rich Texas, Oklahoma, and Alaska where working class Trump supporters didn't exist in great enough numbers to stop him. Meanwhile, Rubio failed to win Virginia or other states where the establishment was counting on rallying middle class voters to stop Trump.
Nevertheless, moving forward from that point it seemed Cruz had missed his window and the remaining states would be more friendly to Rubio. But here was the problem for the establishment, who would vastly prefer a Rubio candidacy to a Cruz one, they'd spent so long beating each other up that none of their candidates was able to win states and build up any kind of momentum as a strong not-Trump option.
Meanwhile Cruz had victories to point to in Iowa, the first state contested, and also a big victory in the massive state of Texas.
If you were a Republican voter in Kansas, Maine, Kentucky, or Louisiana on Saturday you were less likely to be drawn to Rubio's cash reserves and upcoming slate of demographically favorable states, especially when current polls have Marco losing his own state of Florida to Trump. Instead, people rallied behind Cruz and produced this result:
Cruz won 69 delegates
Trump won 53 delegates
Rubio won 18 delegates
Kasich won 10
This effect was particularly stark in Kentucky where the finishing numbers were:
Trump: 35.9%
Cruz: 31.6%
Rubio: 16.4%
Kasich: 14.4%
Cruz is clearly the guy at this point who's the rallying point for beating Trump. Rubio may have the broadest appeal of any of the GOP candidates, but he's currently not a preferred choice amongst many group within the party...except in Puerto Rico.
So now here's where we stand in terms of the nomination:
Here's the kicker, on March 15th Florida and Ohio will hold "winner takes all" primaries which are designed to allow a frontrunner with momentum to start to pull away. Whoever wins Ohio gets 66 delegates and whoever wins Florida gets 99, no one else will get any delegates from those states.
Cruz is not in good shape to win either of these states, so his plan is as follows:
1) Allow Kasich to do his thing in Ohio (where he's an immensely popular governor) and deny Trump from winning those delegates.
2) Set up offices across Florida and push hard to do as well in that state as he can with the obvious outcome of allowing Trump to beat Rubio.
If Rubio can't win Florida he'll be so marginalized that even if he doesn't drop out he won't be likely to hold his voters from flocking to Cruz
3) Keep winning states.
The original Cruz plan to win with Reagan Democrats will have to be on hold until he's their only GOP option in a general election against Hillary since he can't seem to separate them from Trump. Instead, Cruz is now pivoting to unite the rest of the party behind him and be THE not-Trump option.
So what do we do?
For those of us who want the GOP to continue to be about conservatism, or for those of us who simply believe that a man with such low character and judgment shouldn't be the President, the question now becomes "What do we do?"
There are three key factors to consider, the first is that if a single candidate wins 50% of the statewide vote they get all of the delegates. Priority one has to be ensuring that Trump doesn't get 50% of the statewide vote, this can be easily accomplished be all of us simply turning out and casting ballots in the GOP primary for not-Trump candidates.
Secondly, only candidates who finish at 15% or higher in the statewide vote are eligible to receive delegates and they are doled out on a proportional basis from a total of 56.
Finally the state's winner gets three extra delegates, regardless of their percentage of the vote, who are bound to them at the convention. That last point is key because if we get to Cleveland and no one has 1237 delegates than most delegates will be allowed to switch their vote to another candidate.
Also worth noting, Michigan has an open primary. If you are a Democrat who believes (rightly) that Hillary Clinton has got the Democratic primary wrapped up and is appalled by the thought of Trump competing in a general election, you can choose to vote in the Republican primary rather than the Democratic primary.
Cruz is now positioning himself to be the only not-Trump option. Even if you don't like the Texan senator it's worth noting that the best chance of getting a brokered convention is for Trump to fail to win Ohio and Florida on the 15th and then for someone like Cruz to battle him all the way to the end so that he can't secure 1237 delegates.
The establishment's plan to unite behind Rubio is failing, it's just not going to happen. I think the following two options are your best options if you want to see Trump defeated:
Option 1: Vote Kasich
Either he gets some delegates and momentum heading into Ohio, which we desperately need him to win for any not-Trump plan to work, or perhaps he even pulls a shocker and wins. Well, he probably won't win, but he's still worth investing in at this point and will probably do decently well.
Option 2: Vote Cruz
I don't think it's possible to beat Trump in Michigan at this point, but continuing the theme of consolidating votes behind Cruz would give him greater momentum and validity as the not-Trump option. There's also a tiny chance he wins the state since you have to figure his excellent campaign is ready to turn out thousands of evangelicals across Western Michigan.
Personally I've always preferred Cruz to the other candidates and don't mind uniting behind him. I would recommend that everyone ultimately vote their conscience, but if you want to be strategic and try to avoid facing this in the November general election:
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